ABC17 STORMTRACK BLOG
There are no posts for today,
Fri Nov 20, 2009
Use the tools to the right to search for a posting or go to a specific date...
Other Recent Posts:
Mizzou vs. Iowa State- Saturday Fcst.
Submitted by Sharon Ray on
Thu Nov 19, 2009 10:30pm (BACK TO TOP)
Updated 2 Week: Trending Colder and Unsettled
Submitted by Jeff Huffman on
Wed Nov 18, 2009 11:32am (BACK TO TOP)
|
|
|
WED
Drizzle
45
|
THU
MCloudy
49
|
FRI
MCloudy
52
|
SAT
PCloudy
59
|
SUN
MCloudy
57
|
MON
Shwrs
46
|
TUE
Rain/Snow
39
|
25
PSunny
41
|
26
MCloudy
34
|
27
PCloudy
40
|
28
PSunny
48
|
29
MCloudy
51
|
30
Rain/Snow
36
|
1
PCloudy
39
|
2
Lt. Snow
32
|
|
|
|
Summary of Next Two Weeks:
- Gradual warming this weekend with plenty of passing clouds
- Fast-moving, but potentially strong storm system to bring mostly rain early next week. However, there is support for a period of wet snow on the back side of this front. Accumulating snow is also possible close to Mid-Missouri on Tue/Wed with this system, so stay tuned for frequent updates as the big holiday approaches.
- Quick shot of coldest air of the season so far around the Thanksgiving holiday. Overnight lows could dip well into the 20s.
- Brief warm up for the weekend after Thanksgiving
- Major shot of true arctic air to accompany one or two storm systems during the first week of December. A measurable snow is possible during this time frame.
"Stepping Down" to an Early Winter?
Submitted by Jeff Huffman on
Mon Nov 16, 2009 12:13pm (BACK TO TOP)
I've spent a lot of time this morning looking over the latest forecast models concerning next week's forecast. It's still WAY too early to talk details, but all signs point to a classic early winter pattern in the central plains that will likely produce the first measurable snowfall for many Midwestern cities by December 1st. Cities like St. Joseph, MO and Lincoln, Nebraska are already getting an early dose today! Whether or not we get it here in Mid-Missouri won't be talked about here until a few days prior to the potential event.
I put together a map (below) that shows the players on the field and their potential impacts are listed below:
Cold Air Building: Temperatures are not extremely cold in Canada and there truly is an absence of arctic air. However, the jet stream will likely start to buckle (or shift northward) on the west coast resulting in the downstream winds flowing more out of the north across the plains. This is called an amplifying pattern and will push whatever cold air is in southern Canada (and it's cold enough) south.
Series of Storms: There is a parade of storms lined up in the Pacific, and with each passing one, more cold will be drawn southward. As is often the case in an amplifying jet stream, each successive storm will dig further south resulting in a storm track more and more favorable for snow on it's northwest side (see the black lines on the map above).
Energy and Moisture: The digging trough is not forecasted to be strong enough (or aligned well enough) to shut down moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico or dampen out any of these waves. Therefore, each passing storm will likely mature or be in a maturing stage as it passes, especially the latter two.
REMEMBER, it's the exact track and strength of these storms that enable us to pinpoint when or where snow will fall. And with most storms, the exact track is not something we can forecast until a few days out...and even then, it's subject to subtle shifts that can have HUGE impacts on local sensible weather. As always, stay tuned for more updates over the coming days. Sharon, Mike, and I will be first to alert and first to update on any future changes.
Here is an updated text version of the two-week (and beyond) forecast:
|
MON
Rain
44 |
TUE
Shwrs
42 |
WED
Cloudy
45 |
THU
PSunny
56 |
FRI
AM Shwr
50 |
SAT
PCloudy
59 |
| SUN
Cloudy
54 |
23
Shwrs
51 |
24
PCloudy
42 |
25
PM Rain
40 |
26
Rain/Snow
34 |
27
PCloudy
42 |
28
PSunny
48 |
| 29
Flurries
39 |
30
Frigid
30 |
1
Sunny
32 |
|
|
|
|
Additional Rainfall Amounts
Submitted by Sharon Ray on
Sun Nov 15, 2009 10:20pm (BACK TO TOP)
We have already gotten 1 to 3 inches of rain with the highest totals across the Lake of the Ozarks and north to Jefferson City. Periods of rain will continue through Wednesday with additional amounts of up to 2 inches.
Stormtrack Doppler Radar Rainfall Estimates through 10 pm Sunday
Additional Forecast Rainfall Amounts- Rain Tracker
A Rainy, Cold Monday
Submitted by Sharon Ray on
Sun Nov 15, 2009 7:38pm (BACK TO TOP)
You'll need the umbrellas and heavy jackets the next couple of days as a slow moving storm system moves across mid-Missouri. A brisk northeasterly wind and periodic rain with temperatures in the low to mid 40s will make for a chilly, damp Monday. The wind will make it feel more like the mid to upper 30s.
We'll have a brief break in the rain Monday evening before it picks up again overnight and through Tuesday morning. Some wet snow mixed with rain is possible in the Ozarks early Tuesday but no accumulation is expected.
This storm system won't be completely out of the area until Wednesday night and until then some light showers are possible. We'll see some sunshine and a warm-up late in the work week.
Printable Version
Latest Video